Obama, Afghanistan, and Poppies

Juan Cole has an excellent analysis on Obama's first official policy move in Afghanistan.

Echoing Juan's points, some notes:

• What does Obama hope to gain by increasing troop numbers? As Prof. Cole points out, the US attempt to pacify Iraq using sheer force of numbers has been a resounding failure; Obama knows this, as he made it a part of his campaign in arguing for the US' official withdrawl of combat troops. More than that, the history of Afghanistan shows that an imperial army, be it the Soviets or the US, cannot hope to outlast the Afghan insurgency simply by having more troops, in particular when the root causes remain blantantly unsolved.
• Re: Poppy production. This may play well in the United States. However, it shows a lack of understanding of the material situation of most Afghanis. Poppies for Herion production, as Juan points out, count for nearly 1/3rd of GDP. The people who cultivate these poppies are Afghanistan's rural poor. Poverty has driven them to this situation; Removing a crucial source of income for these poor will do absolutely nothing to better their situation.
• Of course, in 8 years of occupation, the US has been content to do little except engage in skirmishes with guerillas, kill civillians with impunity, and support a government made up of warlords and US-friendly puppets. The people of Afghanistan have seen little actual benefit from the US invasion of 2001-present.
• With NATO's commitment beginning to wind down, the US will once again be in a situation of unilateral occupation. As it stands, I see no reason for this imperial venture to end any differently than the one in Iraq.